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Could the pre amp be going bad?
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Yes, that's possible. What's the make and model of the preamp?
How high is your antenna above the ground?
Lightning does not have to strike the antenna or preamp directly to do damage... It's possible that a nearby strike could cause damage that manifests intermittently.
However, exposure to the weather can explain these symptoms also. Moisture in the antenna matching (transformer/balun assembly), coax, etc. will cause oddly variable symptoms as well.
The system needs a close inspection. For items that visually look OK, but remain suspect, substitution with a known good part is often the least expensive choice (as opposed to buying or renting commercial test equipment).