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The HBU-44 recommendation takes into account an estimate of the foliage impairment. If there was no vegetation to contend with, a significantly smaller antenna is indicated by your signal report.
While I can't offer a 100% guaranty of perfect reception, I think you'll do well, despite the trees. If I was in the same situation, I'd go for it.
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If the well is dry and you don't see rain on the horizon, you'll need to dig the hole deeper. (If the antenna can't get the job done, an amp won't fix it.)
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