I doubt the layer of paint is a major factor here.
You are tracking with our thinking pretty much.
If I was given a Y10713, I would like to see how it does aimed at SF. If I was given two Y10713's I would even play with a horizontal stacking arrangement. http://forum.tvfool.com/showthread.php?t=1024
But I'm not sure I would spend my own money...
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If the well is dry and you don't see rain on the horizon, you'll need to dig the hole deeper. (If the antenna can't get the job done, an amp won't fix it.)
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