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You are in a tough spot... or at least that's what your TVFR suggests. However, when you are this close to the base of a hill/mountain, the only way to know what will be received is to try. You are in the fortunate situation that you have no need for a huge/expensive all channel antenna, in fact all the channels fall into a single band. I have seen the Y10713 offered at very affordable prices, I bought one new in the last year for about $25 as I recall (quite a steal i thought... but I see they are now at about $38 on amazon).
Having said all that... Yes, there is a good chance you'll find a bounce or other reception anomaly, just as the 'old timers' mentioned. (There is also the possibility that this just wont work.)
On paper, add the antenna gain to the predicted NM value. If the result is positive, it's reasonable to give it a try. If I'm dealing with the typical installation, with fairly open horizon, (no mountain) I want to achieve no less than a +10 dB NM net at the antenna terminals. In other words, Predicted NM + antenna gain should be +10 dB NM or higher. In cases like yours, you should try even if the prediction looks bleak.
Amplifier gain does not add to the antenna gain. Amplifier gain can only overcome cable/splitter losses and help with some of the noise produced in the tuner front-end. So, in very weak signal applications such as yours, it's more important that the preamp be located close to the antenna and that the preamp produce little noise of it's own. If more gain is needed, a distribution amplifier can be added. The PA-18 is a very good, low noise design, intended for weak signal applications such as yours. The CM-7777 is a bit nosier, the difference in gain is not the deciding factor.
I would start by testing with just the antenna, a 50' length of new coax and a good TV set-up for OTA reception. (The majority of tuners default to cable mode. You'll need to use the set-up menu to switch to 'air' or 'antenna' mode. Then most tuners will need to be run through a scan to find channels.)
If you see some signals, then invest in the preamp and other hardware.
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If the well is dry and you don't see rain on the horizon, you'll need to dig the hole deeper. (If the antenna can't get the job done, an amp won't fix it.)
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