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is there any chance a C5 at 30 feet will pull in channel 13?
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The math says "Not really". However, the simulator has a statistical probability of error and may or may not be precise enough. I'd suggest, that if you want to go for that station, that a 10-element high-VHF only antenna will give you your best shot.
Did you by chance, try the DB8e with both panels aligned and aimed towards the southeast to see if you could pick up WUNC on UHF channel 25? I think that's actually your best chance of getting a PBS station.
Unfortunately, the PA18 may be ill-suited for your location due to the proximity to the ION station on UHF 14. I just use the general rule of thumb of "Green? No PA18" around here to keep our inside sales folks out of overload trouble. You'll need to try the DB8e without the PA18 in the above test.
Reception from Roanoke is likely due to a fortunate signal reflection off a hill in a southerly direction. Direct line of sight signals would be quite unlikely to be present at your location.