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We can also be positive a and have hope.
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Not if you've been doing this as long as I have and have done the level of field research that I have.
It is my observation that one or more channels will usually fail to be reliable in such situations. Just wait until summer storms come along and see how the system turns out. Of course, in the Seattle area, it's wet much of the time and there are plenty of non-deciduous trees, so it's possible to have issues year-round. Or not. YMMV.
I've simply concluded that it's impossible to predict accurately thereby making it prudent to be cautious.